LONDON/MOSCOW/DUBAI – OPEC+ on Thursday pushed back the start of oil output rises by three months until April and extended the full unwinding of cuts by a year until the end of 2026, due to weak demand and booming production outside the group. OPEC+, which pumps about half the world’s oil, had been planning to start unwinding cuts from October 2024 but a slowdown in global demand and rising output elsewhere forced it to postpone the plans on several occasions.

OPEC+ groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia. Despite the group’s supply cuts, global oil benchmark Brent crude has mostly stayed in a $70 to $80 per barrel range this year. On Thursday it traded near $72 a barrel, having hit a 2024 low below $69 in September. “They have been talking about this (output hike) since June but they are still delaying,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB. “This means there is no upside to the oil price in the next couple of years.”

Schieldrop said the oil market will now shift focus to the actions of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who could impose new sanctions on Iran, tariffs on China and has pledged an end to the war in Ukraine. Amrita Sen from Energy Aspects said the OPEC+ decision was bullish as it removed the bulk of oversupply for next year: “But the market believes Trump wants low oil prices and hence remains bearish despite the OPEC+ announcement”. During his previous term as U.S. President in 2017-2021, Trump repeatedly attacked OPEC+ for high oil prices and asked Saudi Arabia to release more oil if the kingdom wanted U.S. support against its arch-rival Iran. (Reuters)

Photo: A view shows the logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) outside its headquarters in Vienna, Austria. (Reuters)