MOSCOW –  Russia appears to have suffered a “catastrophic failure” in a test of its Sarmat missile, a key weapon in the modernization of its nuclear arsenal, according to arms experts who have analyzed satellite images of the launch site.

The images captured by Maxar on Sept. 21 show a crater about 60 metres (200 feet) wide at the launch silo at the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in northern Russia. They reveal extensive damage that was not visible in pictures taken earlier in the month.  The RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile is designed to deliver nuclear warheads to strike targets thousands of miles away in the United States or Europe, but its development has been dogged by delays and testing setbacks.

“By all indications, it was a failed test. It’s a big hole in the ground,” said Pavel Podvig, an analyst based in Geneva, who runs the Russian Nuclear Forces project. “There was a serious incident with the missile and the silo.” Timothy Wright, research associate at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, said the destruction of the area immediately surrounding the missile silo was suggestive of a failure soon after ignition.

“One possible cause is that the first stage (booster) either failed to ignite properly or suffered from a catastrophic mechanical failure, causing the missile to fall back into or land closely adjacent to the silo and explode,” he told Reuters. James Acton, nuclear specialist at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, posted on X that the before-and-after satellite images were “very persuasive that there was a big explosion” and said he was convinced that a Sarmat test had failed.

The Kremlin referred questions on Sarmat to the defense ministry. The ministry did not respond to a Reuters request for comment and has made no announcements about planned Sarmat tests in recent days. The US and its allies are closely watching Russia’s development of its nuclear arsenal at a time when the war in Ukraine has pushed tensions between Moscow and the West to the most dangerous point for more than 60 years. Since the start of the conflict, President Vladimir Putin has said repeatedly that Russia has the biggest and most advanced nuclear arsenal in the world, and warned the West not to cross a threshold that could lead to nuclear war. (CNN)…[+]