TEL AVIV – On October 7, Israeli Prime Minister’s Benjamin Netanyahu’s self-styled image as “Mister Security” seemed irrevocably shattered by the deadliest day for Jews since the Holocaust. The Jewish homeland and its leader had failed to protect the people. How could he possibly survive?

The polls told us as much. He had formed an extremist coalition government in November 2022 on the back of the 32 seats his Likud party secured in the 120-seat Knesset. After Hamas’ attack, a string of opinion polls suggested that were elections held, Likud would get just 17 seats, putting the government’s long-term survival in jeopardy.

Nearly a year later, Netanyahu has staged a remarkable turnaround. Though Likud would still struggle to form a government were elections held today, a brutal campaign of airstrikes in Lebanon and assassinations across the Middle East in recent weeks have buoyed the prime minister to heights unimaginable in the immediate aftermath of Hamas’ attacks almost a year ago.

A poll released Sunday by Israel’s Channel 12 showed that Likud would win 25 seats were elections to be held today, making it the largest party. Netanyahu enjoys 38% support, according to the survey.

“The regional confrontations are good for Netanyahu,” veteran pollster and analyst Dahlia Scheindlin told CNN. “They seem quite clearly to be the contributing factor to his recovery.”

Israel’s aggressive military maneuvers against its enemies, she said, have helped restored a sense of agency and strength destroyed by Hamas’ October 7 attack. The war in Gaza is popular in Israel, but it brings with it complex questions around long-term occupation, relations with the Palestinians, and most importantly for Israelis, the fact that 101 hostages are still held there.

Israel’s military attacks elsewhere are seen at home as more black and white. “It’s clear enemies of Israel,” she said, referring to those whom Israel says it is targeting. “There’s no ambiguity around this question of occupation, et cetera.”

The aggressive military campaign began in April, when an airstrike on Iran’s embassy complex in Syria killed a top commander in Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards. Israel did not comment but was widely understood to be responsible. That was followed by a July airstrike on Beirut that killed Hezbollah’s most senior military official, Fu’ad Shukr. The next day, an explosion in a Tehran government guest house killed Hamas’ political leader, Ismail Haniyeh. (CNN) …[+]