MOSCOW – Russian President Vladimir Putin is fond of nuclear saber-rattling: On the eve of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Kremlin leader presided over the rehearsal of a nuclear strike, and his not-so-veiled nuclear threats have since kept US officials on edge.

This week, Putin once again rattled the arms-control world by revealing proposed changes to his country’s nuclear doctrine. In a meeting Wednesday of his Security Council, the president said Russia would revise the doctrine to potentially lower the bar for the use of nuclear weapons, adding that Moscow would regard an attack by a non-nuclear state that involved or was supported by a nuclear state as a “joint attack against the Russian Federation.”

Nuclear retaliation, Putin continued, could be considered “once we receive reliable information about a massive launch of air and space attack weapons and their crossing our state border. I mean strategic and tactical aircraft, cruise missiles, UAVs [unmanned aerial vehicles], hypersonic and other aircraft.”

In simple terms, Putin was delivering a warning to Washington and other backers of Ukraine. The revision to the doctrine comes as Ukraine (a non-nuclear weapons state since it gave up claims to nuclear weapons after the collapse of the USSR) presses the United States for long-range weapons that would allow it to strike deeper inside Russia.

The doctrinal revamp is clearly meant to make Western policymakers think twice as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky presents his “victory plan” to the Biden administration. By brandishing the big stick of Russia’s nuclear arsenal, Putin is implying that the potential costs of providing Ukraine that weaponry may be too high for the West.

So does Putin’s statement move the Doomsday Clock any closer to midnight? Wednesday’s announcement sparked robust discussion online, with arms-control experts trying parse Putin’s language about the thresholds for nuclear retaliation.

Pavel Podvig, an expert on Russian nuclear forces, wrote in a thread on X that there was “deliberate ambiguity” in the announcement, particularly around what doctrine defines as aggression against Russia.

“In the current version of Russia’s nuclear doctrine, there is no distinction between an aggression by nuclear- and non-nuclear-weapon state,” he wrote. “All you need is an aggression that threatens the existence of the state.”

 (CNN) …[+]

LEBANON – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pledged Israel will fight until “total victory” in its continuing war on Gaza and promised to continue attacks on the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah, as hopes faded for a ceasefire that could head off an all-out regional war.

Several delegations walked out as Netanyahu approached the lectern to speak while supporters in the gallery cheered. “I didn’t intend to come here this year. My country is at war fighting for its life,” Netanyahu said on Friday.

“But after I heard the lies and slanders levelled at my country by many of the speakers at this podium, I decided to come here and set the record straight.” Israeli attacks on Gaza have killed more than 41,500 Palestinians and wounded more than 96,000 others since October 7, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry.

More than half of those killed were women and children, including about 1,300 children under the age of two. Israel launched the assault on Gaza in response to a Hamas-led attack on southern Israel, which killed at least 1,139 people, mostly civilians, according to an Al Jazeera tally based on official Israeli figures, with about 250 others seized as captives.

Israeli leader told the 193-member assembly that the Palestinian group Hamas, which governs Gaza, should have no role in the reconstruction of the territory. “If Hamas stays in power, it will regroup … and attack Israel again and again and again … So Hamas has got to go,” he told the United Nations General Assembly on Friday.

The United States, along with Egypt and Qatar, has been trying unsuccessfully to reach a ceasefire that would end the war and secure the release of the captives. “This war can come to an end now. All that has to happen is for Hamas to surrender, lay down its arms and release all the hostages,” Netanyahu said. (Al Jazeera) …[+]

PORT- AU- PRINCE  –  At least 3,661 people have been killed in Haiti in the first half of this year amid the “senseless” gang violence that has engulfed the country, according to the United Nations.

The UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) said on Friday that the death toll between January and June – which included 100 children – showed that last year’s “high levels of violence” had been maintained.

“No more lives should be lost to this senseless criminality,” said UN rights chief Volker Turk in a statement.

Haiti was already reeling from years of unrest as powerful armed groups – often with ties to the country’s political and business leaders – vied for influence and control of territory.

The situation worsened dramatically at the end of February, when the gangs launched attacks on prisons and other state institutions across the capital, Port-au-Prince.

The UN report documented “extremely serious patterns of human rights violations and abuses taking place” in Port-au-Prince and the Artibonite Department north of the capital.

It also tracked growing violence in the southern part of the West Department, where the capital is located, an area of the country that had so far been largely unaffected.

According to the report, “gangs have continued to use sexual violence to punish, spread fear and subjugate populations”.

Violence in the country is fuelled by arms trafficking, primarily from the United States, but also from the Dominican Republic and Jamaica.

OHCHR said poorly monitored airspaces, coastlines and porous borders were allowing gangs to obtain high-calibre weapons, drones, boats and “a seemingly endless supply of bullets”.

Turk urged the international community to implement a global arms embargo, a travel ban, and an asset freeze programme imposed by the UN Security Council.

The surge in violence this year prompted the resignation of Haiti’s unelected prime minister, the creation of the transitional presidential council, and the deployment of a UN-backed, Kenya-led multinational force called the Multinational Security Support Mission (MSS).

About 10 countries have pledged more than 3,100 troops to the MSS, but only 430 of these have deployed so far, said OHCHR.

The report was published days before the MSS’s one-year mandate to support Haiti expires, with the UN Security Council scheduled to vote on September 30 on whether to renew it.

Haiti has asked the UN to consider turning it into a formal peacekeeping mission to secure stable funds and capacity.

Turk said it was clear the mission needed “adequate and sufficient equipment and personnel to counter the criminal gangs effectively and sustainably, and stop them spreading further and wreaking havoc on people’s lives”.

Last Wednesday, Haiti’s interim prime minister, Garry Conille, called for international support on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York.

“We are nowhere near winning this, and the simple reality is that we won’t without your help,” he said.

The number of people internally displaced by the violence has almost doubled in the last six months to more than 700,000, while some 1.6 million people are estimated to be facing emergency food insecurity. (Al Jazeera)…[+]

BEIJING  –  The China Coast Guard (CCG) has monitored the whole process of a supply mission conducted by a civilian Philippine vessel at the waters of China’s Ren’ai Jiao in the South China Sea.

The supply of daily necessities to the illegally grounded Philippine warship at Ren’ai Jiao was a temporary arrangement agreed upon by the Chinese and Philippine sides, CCG spokesperson Liu Dejun said on Friday.

Liu urged the Philippines to honor its commitment and work with China to manage the maritime situation well.

He said the CCG will continue its law enforcement activities in China’s Nansha Qundao and the surrounding waters, including Ren’ai Jiao. (Xinhua)…[+]

TOKYO   –   Japan’s scandal-hit ruling party has elected Shigeru Ishiba as its new leader, positioning the former defense chief as Japan’s next leader.

Ishiba, 67, said he would clean up his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), revitalise the economy and address security threats after winning Friday’s party election.

Since the LDP has a parliamentary majority, its party chief will become prime minister and Ishiba is expected to be appointed to the role on Tuesday.

The change of guard comes at a turbulent time for the party, which has been rocked by scandals and internal conflicts that disbanded its once-powerful factions.

Nine candidates contested for the party leadership after Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced last month that he would not stand for re-election.

Ishiba led in most opinion polls, with this being his fifth and, he said, final bid to lead the LDP, which has ruled Japan for most of the post-war era. It headed into a run-off between Ishiba and Sanae Takaichi, 63, who vied to become Japan’s first female leader.

“We ought to be a party that lets members discuss the truth in a free and open manner, a party that is fair and impartial on all matters and a party with humility,” he told a press conference.

Ishiba is in favour of allowing female emperors – a hugely controversial issue opposed by many LDP member and successive governments.

His blunt candour and public criticism of Prime Minister Kishida – a rarity in Japanese politics – has rankled fellow party members while resonating with members of the public.

Ishiba is well-versed on the machinations of party politics as well as security policies. He said Japan must strengthen its security in view of recent incursions from Russia and China into Japan’s territory and North Korea’s missile tests.

At a moment of flux within the LDP, he offers a safe pair of hands and stability.

What he doesn’t offer is a fresh face for an organisation desperate to reinvent itself and regain public trust amid a stagnant economy, struggling households and a series of political scandals. His economic strategy includes boosting wages to counter rising prices.

He has said that he reads three books a day and that he prefers doing that instead of mingling with his party colleagues.

Takaichi, on the other hand, was one of two women vying for the LDP leadership, but was also among the more conservative of the candidates.

A close ally to late former prime minister Shinzo Abe, Takaichi’s positions on women’s issues are in line with the LDP’s policy of having women serve in their traditional roles of being good mothers and wives.

She opposes legislation allowing women to retain their maiden name as well as allowing female emperors.

Consistent among the frontrunners, however, was a pledge to overhaul the LDP – which has held power almost continuously since it was formed in 1955 – in the face of public fury and plummeting approval ratings.

“In the upcoming presidential election, it’s necessary to show the people that the Liberal Democratic Party will change,” Kishida said at a press conference last month, when announcing his decision not to run for another term.

The LDP leadership contest is not just a race for the top job, but also an attempt to regain public trust that the party has haemorrhaged over the past few months amid a stagnant economy, struggling households and a series of political scandals.

Chief among these scandals are revelations regarding the extent of influence that Japan’s controversial Unification Church wields within the LDP, as well as suspicions that party factions underreported political funding over the course of several years.

The fallout from the political funding scandal led to the dissolution of five out of six factions in the LDP – factions that have long been the party’s backbone, and whose support is typically crucial to winning an LDP leadership election. (BBC)…[+]