DAMASCUS  –  The speed with which the status quo in Syria – however unresolved and unsatisfactory – has been turned on its head in recent days has been extraordinary. Syrian government officials and supporters were still asserting the army would hold the line at Hama, even as insurgent fighters were entering the city.

Shortly afterwards, the Syrian military acknowledged that it had pulled out of Hama, ceding control of the city for the first time to rebel factions. After capturing two major cities within a week, the next target for the insurgents led by the Islamist group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is Homs. Tens of thousands of people are fleeing the city in anticipation of what looks likely to be the next major battle. The stakes have risen precipitously for President Bashar al-Assad and his key backers, Russia and Iran.

Homs is strategically considerably more significant than either Aleppo or Hama. It straddles a crossroads that leads west to the heartland of support for the Assad dynasty and south towards the capital, Damascus. Whatever the previous strategy of HTS may have been, as it spent years building its power base in the north-western province of Idlib, the momentum of the past week now seems to be leading inexorably towards a direct challenge to the continuing rule of Assad.

In an interview with CNN, HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani confirmed the rebels do indeed aim to overthrow the Assad regime So, attention is now focusing on whether the Syrian leader has the capacity to see off this renewed attempt to topple him from power. The Syrian army – which is largely made up of conscripts – might have lost the war years ago if outside forces had not come to Assad’s aid. Soldiers are underpaid, under-equipped and often have poor morale, with desertion having long been an issue.

As his military failed to hold Aleppo and then Hama, Assad issued an order raising soldiers’ salary by 50% – but that in itself is unlikely to turn the tide. Russian planes backed up Syrian forces in Hama, but clearly not strongly enough to make an impact. The lack of all-out Russian military support has fueled speculation that Moscow may be less able to play the game changing role that it performed in Syria in 2015. That would be down to almost three years of war in Ukraine, draining its reserves of manpower and military hardware. But Russia still has compelling reasons to stay the course with Assad. President Putin’s decisive, full-scale military intervention, which kept the Syrian leader in power when he was close to defeat, showed up the failure of Western allies – the US in particular – to honour their promises of support to the rebels. (BBC)

Photo: Syrian rebels. (AFP)