CAIRO – The Palestinian militant group Hamas will likely replace Yahya Sinwar with a new political leader based outside Gaza while his brother – Mohammad Sinwar – is expected to assume a bigger role directing the war against Israel in the territory, experts say.

In its leadership deliberations, Hamas must consider not only the preferences of its main backer – Iran – but also the interests of the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, where all the main candidates to take over as politburo chief currently reside.

Sinwar, a mastermind of the Oct. 7, 2023 attack that ignited the devastating Gaza war, was killed by Israeli forces in a gunbattle on Wednesday — the second time in less than three months that Hamas has lost its top leader.

Its previous chief, Ismail Haniyeh, was assassinated in Iran in July almost certainly by Israel.

When Sinwar replaced him, he fused together both the military and political leadership in Gaza, but that does not appear likely this time around.

After more than a year of ferocious Israeli attacks that have pounded Hamas, killed thousands of its fighters and eliminated senior figures both inside and out of Gaza, it is not clear how the Islamist group will emerge from this latest blow.

Sinwar’s deputy Khalil Al-Hayya, who is viewed as a potential successor, struck a defiant note on Friday, saying Israeli hostages would not be returned until Israeli troops withdrew from Gaza and the war ended.

Hamas has a history of quickly and efficiently replacing its fallen leaders, with its top decision-making body, the Shura Council, tasked with naming a new head.

The Shura Council represents all Hamas members in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Israeli prisons and the Palestinian diaspora, meaning the new leader should have the authority to enter ceasefire talks even if he is not in Gaza, where Hamas gunmen still hold dozens of Israelis hostage.

Besides Hayya, who is Hamas’ chief negotiator, the other main leadership contenders are Khaled Meshaal, Haniyeh’s predecessor, and Mohammad Darwish, a little-known figure who chairs the Shura Council, according to analysts and a Hamas source.

Hamas will need to notify Qatar, which has played a major role in rounds of so far fruitless ceasefire talks, and other regional capitals ahead of its decision, the source said. (Reuters)

Photo: A pro-Palestinian protester holds up a portrait of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar outside of a campaign event for Democratic presidential candidate and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris in New York City. (Reuters)