IRAN – Under the specter of conflict with Israel, a struggling economy and social discontent, Iranians headed to the polls on Friday for snap presidential elections that could be the most important for the country in decades.The sudden death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a recent helicopter crash, alongside Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and other officials, has left a leadership void. Raisi, a hardline regime loyalist, was widely regarded as a leading candidate to replace Iran’s Supreme Leader, 85-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who holds ultimate authority over all state matters.
It is also the first presidential election since the death of Mahsa Amini in the custody of the country’s notorious morality police in 2022, an event that sparked the largest protests since the regime’s founding in 1979. The vote takes place amid deteriorating relations with the West, an advancing Iranian nuclear program, and an increasing risk of direct war with Israel. Just two months ago, Iran and Israel exchanged fire for the first time as the Gaza conflict widened, and Israel is now preparing for a potential second front with Hezbollah, Iran’s primary regional proxy, in Lebanon.
Three conservatives are vying with a single reformist candidate for the country’s top elected seat, after dozens of other candidates were barred from standing. Of those running, Masoud Pezeshkian, 69, a reformist lawmaker and former health minister, Saeed Jalili a hardline security adviser and nuclear negotiator, and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the conservative speaker of the Iranian parliament, are widely considered the frontrunners in the first round of elections. The final candidates were pre-selected by Iran’s Guardian Council, which reports directly to Khamenei.Some polls have shown increasing popularity for Pezeshkian, with the rest of the conservatives splitting the vote. During nationwide protests against Amini’s death in 2022, Pezeshkian said in an interview with Iran’s IRINN TV: “It is our fault. We want to implement religious faith through the use of force. This is scientifically impossible. On Thursday, two conservative candidates, Amirhossein Qazizadeh-Hashemi and Alireza Zakani, withdrew from the race to help consolidate the hardline vote. Qazizadeh-Hashemi urged other candidates from the revolution camp” to do the same to secure a hardliner victory.
These are nothing like free and fair elections, and only those who’ve already pledged absolute loyalty to Khamenei and the Islamic Republic can run,” said Arash Azizi, an Iranian writer and fellow at the Center for Middle East and Global Order CMEG, a Berlin-based think tank. “But there are still very important differences between the three main candidates. Each of them present certain problems for Khamenei. The top contenders are children of Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution, likely shaped by their experiences fighting the then US-backed Saddam Hussein regime in the bloody, decade-long war with their neighbor Iraq, as well as careers serving the Iranian state. But voters’ choice between either of the conservatives or their reformist co-candidate will steer a different path forward for the country. (CNN)…[+]